Microstrategy: the LUNA/UST of this cycle?

No, despite Saylor pouring billions into bitcoin we didn’t break $100K. More than anything, it seems to be a psychological resistance that proved to be a perfect example of a ‘sell the hype’.

My take remains that, it’s more of a psychological resistance than anything, and as soon as enough people are convinced of that and turn short, we’ll break it violently.

Meanwhile, DeFi is picking up, especially on Ethereum. On-chain metrics look great, with both TVL and Volume improving across Layer-2s, especially Coinbase-backed Base.

More generally, it seems we’re approaching a turning point for Ethereum — after getting hammered for months while Solana took center stage (recently breaking its ATH!), its time seems to have come. Ethereum ETFs could finally start catching a bid as staking is implemented (TradFi loves yield, remember that), and US crypto policy now being far more permissive opens up a lot of opportunities for DeFi protocols such as enabling fee switch, and additional utility for tokens holders.

To date, polymarket prices an ETH all-time-high by end of year at only 21%.

Despite going up in aggregate, this market is tough to trade. Rotations are extremely fast, hence, we’re not a ‘rising tide lifts all boats’ scenario. The spotlight is still on memecoins, ai agents, and a few select alts.

BTC remains king, but its dominance being down 4.07% is great, signaling a potential capital distribution that kickstarts an alt season.

Happens on-chain

• AI16Z, one of the hottest coins in the Crypto x AI sectors, is down 70% from its ATH, here’s a summary of the drama (meanwhile, Tangent is loading up) — 𝕏/apewoodx
• Tether has minted $15B so far in November — 𝕏/Cointelegraph
• Aptos Labs adds former Grayscale CEO and OpenAI chief to its advisory board — The Block
• Huobi’s L1 blockchain will officially retire January 15, 2025 — heco123.com
• Axie infinity developer Sky Mavis cuts 21% workforce — TechInAsia
• Ethena’s stablecoin supply increased 60% in the last six weeks — Defiant
• Pump fun disables live streaming feature indefinitely — The Block
• Tether discontinues support for its Euro-backed stablecoin due to European MiCA requirements — tether.io
• Haliey Welch, the ‘Hawk Tuah’ girl, to launch her memecoin on Dec, 4 — 𝕏/HalieyWelch

Traditional rails

• Microstrategy will be reflexive on the way up, and on the way down — Fidenza
• SEC Chair Gary Gensler to step down on January, 20 — The Block
• Ex-CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo is running for ‘Crypto Czar’ position under Trump admin — The Block
• FTX expects to start repaying customers $16.5B no later than March 2025 — DLnews
• Celsius to distribute $127M to creditors in second bankruptcy payout — The Block
• Trump’s media company files trademark application for ‘TruthFi’, a crypto payments service — The Block
• US court says that Tornado Cash smart contracts don’t fall under US laws — DLnews
• Trump proposed Crypto Advisory Council could set up a US Bitcoin reserve — The Block
• Trump nominates pro-crypto hedge fund manager Bessent for Treasury Secretary — The Block
• Ripple donates $25M to Fairshake, backing pro-crypto candidates — 𝕏/BGarlinghouse
• Finance giant Charles Schwab to offer spot crypto services to clients — CoinDesk
• Brazilian lawmaker proposes $18B national bitcoin reserve — The Block
• Major of Vancouver submits proposal to include bitcoin in city’s balance sheet — Cointelegraph
• Japan energy and automotive firm Remixpoint invests $3.2M in bitcoin — Binance
• Chinese company Sos ltd. plans to invest $50M in bitcoin — investing.com
• Cantor Fitzgerald in talks with Tether about $2B Bitcoin lending project — Fortune
• Bitwise joins Solana spot ETF applicants in the U.S. — DLnews
• SEC filed Bitwise 10 crypto index ETF (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, LINK, BCH, DOT, UNI) — sec.gov
• Binance boosts compliance staff by 34% — CoinDesk
• UK to unveil crypto and stablecoin legislation in early 2025 — Bloomberg
• Polymarket blocks French traders amid gambling inquiry — CoinDesk
• Coinbase strikes sponsorship with LA Clippers NBA team — Decrypt
• ZA Bank, largest bank in HK, claims to be the first bank in Asia to allow retail clients to trade crypto — life.mingpao.com
• Suriname candidate for presidential elections plans to make the country adopt Bitcoin-standard — Cointelegraph

Tech go up

• Arbitrum teases AI integration — 𝕏/arbitrum
• Starknet enabled staking on mainnet — 𝕏/Starknet
• Avalanche9000 launches on testnet — The Block
• Phantom adds support for Base — The Block
• Solidly founder Andre Cronje hints at V2 — 𝕏/AndreCronjeTech
• Telegram Ventures introduces tgBTC, wrapped version of Bitcoin — ton.org
• Curve launches Lite version — curve.fi
• Pendle launches on Base — 𝕏/pendle_fi

Where’s the money flowing?

• Microstrategy bought another $5.4B in Bitcoin over the past week — velo.xyz
• Publicly traded bitcoin mining company MARA purchased $615M bitcoin after raising $1B in convertible notes — The Block
• Semler Scientific acquires additional 297 BTC ($28.3M), boosting holdings to 1570 BTC total — semlerscientific.com
• Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and US Commerce Secretary nominee, negotiated a 5% stake in Tether valuing it $12B — The Block
• Justin Sun buys $30M of Trump-backed project tokens and gets ‘Advisor’ role — The Block
• Liquidity protocol Partior raised $20M Series B — crypto-fundraising.info
• GameFi platform Balance raised $10M Round — crypto-fundraising.info
• Restaking protocol Kernel DAO raised $10M Round — crypto-fundraising.info

Airdrops

• Hyperliquid to launch its token tomorrow, with 31% supply assigned to points holders with no vesting — 𝕏/HyperFND
• Mitosis public testnet to go live, with participation resulting in mainnet airdrop — 𝕏/Luke_mitosis
• Side genesis airdrop goes live, targeting Bitcoin, Cosmos users and NFT holders — genesis.side.one
• Japuary DAO vote kicked off on November, 25th requiring 70% approval — 𝕏/weremeow
• WalletConnect airdrop eligibility goes live — 𝕏/WalletConnect
• Swell airdrop S2 is live — swellnetwork.io

Upcoming events

• December, 1: Sonic Shard upgrade
• December, 5-6: Emergence conference in Prague
• January, 20: Inauguration Day for Donald Trump

• Not eager to go risk-on, but holding stable looks boring? Check out JLP, a liquidity pool composed of different crypto assets and stablecoins managed by Jupiter, used as a counterparty for their trading platform. It offers a 71.57% APY derived from the fees it generates.
• Just use Aave! Earn a 16.50% APY supplying DAI on Ethereum, 15.87% APY supplying USDC on Base.
• Aptos aficionado? Cellana offers a 23.92% APY to LP wUSDC/zUSDT

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Disclosure: Authors may own crypto assets named in this newsletter. Stay on-chain is meant for informational and educational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making investment decisions.